TL;DR:
- The Pentagon is facing a new challenge of countering low-cost unmanned systems utilizing autonomy and artificial intelligence.
- The conflict in Ukraine highlighted the effectiveness of inexpensive smart technology in neutralizing conventional warfare tools.
- The US undersecretary of defense issued a need statement, urging the industry to develop new weapons to combat unmanned, autonomous, and AI-driven defense systems.
- The threat extends beyond the aerial domain, encompassing ground, subterranean, sea, and undersea domains.
- The Defense Department has provided Ukraine with aid, including gun trucks and laser-guided rocket systems to counter drones.
- The need statement emphasizes the importance of disabling drone swarms, creating navigation barriers, utilizing kinetic and directed-energy defenses, and assessing defensive approaches.
- Challenges remain in developing effective counter-unmanned and counter-AI weaponry on a larger scale.
- The transition to autonomous systems and the vulnerability of remotely piloted drones to jamming are driving the need for advanced AI and autonomy capabilities.
- The Pentagon can learn from the private sector by adopting an innovation-oriented approach to software development.
- Market opportunities lie in novel sensors for faster drone tracking, autonomous defensive technologies, and passive defeat capabilities.
Main AI News:
In the face of mounting challenges posed by affordable and accessible weapons systems, the Pentagon has shifted its focus from extravagant, protracted acquisition programs to counteracting cheap, unconventional threats. The proliferation of unmanned systems leveraging autonomy and artificial intelligence has long been a subject of military research and deliberation. However, the conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated the devastating effects of low-cost smart technology in neutralizing sophisticated conventional warfare tools. For instance, reports indicate that a Chinese-made DJI drone worth a mere $2,000 was deployed by Ukraine to eliminate a Russian T-90 tank valued at millions of dollars.
With an acute sense of urgency, the United States Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering released a compelling statement in May, urging the industry to collaborate in developing new weapons capable of effectively countering unmanned, autonomous, and AI-driven defense systems. The need statement explicitly acknowledges the expanding threat of multi- and cross-domain uncrewed systems (UxS) to US forces worldwide. It emphasizes the incorporation of robust UxS capabilities by near-peer adversaries and non-state actors across various domains, including the aerial, ground, subterranean, sea, and undersea realms.
While aerial drones have already left a significant impact on the battlefield, as observed in Ukraine and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, undersea systems are poised to follow suit. Ukrainian unmanned underwater vessels, such as the Toloka TLK-150, have likely played a pivotal role in curbing Russian aggression at sea. Additionally, in anticipation of an increasingly critical subterranean battlefield in urban settings, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is actively developing unmanned systems capable of navigating confined and dark spaces.
The recently published need statement highlights specific requirements for weapons that can effectively neutralize uncrewed threats, including disabling the detection capabilities of drone swarms, creating barriers or obstacles to impede navigation, employing kinetic, directed-energy, and control-link defenses to counter physical and electronic attacks from uncrewed systems while preserving defensive capabilities, and providing assessment capabilities to measure the efficacy of defensive approaches.
It is worth noting that the Defense Department has already provided Ukraine with an aid package, announced in April, which includes 30 mm gun trucks and laser-guided rocket systems designed for drone destruction. However, the new need statement underscores the challenges inherent in defeating an inexpensive and intelligent threat that persists despite the destruction of individual platforms.
Gregory Allen, Director of the Wadhwani Center for AI and Advanced Technologies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, suggests that the need statement indicates the military’s acknowledgment that cheap and highly numerous drones are likely to be a persistent presence in future battlefields. Despite experiments conducted by individual military services with counter-drone swarm weapons, such as the Air Force Research Laboratory’s microwave system called the Tactical High-power Operational Responder (THOR), Allen questions the absence of effective programs that address counter-unmanned and counter-AI weaponry on a larger scale. He wonders why there is no substantial procurement of such capabilities that reflect their enduring significance within the military’s arsenal.
Allen further notes that as remotely piloted drones become increasingly susceptible to jamming, the transition to truly autonomous systems is accelerating. This shift poses a significant challenge to the status quo in the United States. Remarkably, Ukraine reportedly loses 10,000 drones each month to Russian jammers, underscoring the urgency to develop effective AI and autonomy capabilities.
In a paper published in May, Allen draws attention to the Defense Department’s sluggish progress in developing AI and autonomy capabilities. He urges program managers to critically evaluate their endeavors and ensure that their objectives are both specific and achievable. The need statement identifies three categories of technology that most captivate the Pentagon: novelsensors for faster drone tracking and identification across domains, potentially leveraging AI and machine learning; autonomous defensive technologies that target enemy drones’ navigation systems and onboard AI capabilities; and passive defeat capabilities that exploit vulnerabilities in unmanned systems’ AI algorithms or conceal sites vulnerable to drone targeting.
James Ryseff, a senior technical policy analyst at Rand, suggests that the Pentagon can learn from private sector practices by adopting an innovation-oriented approach that prioritizes creative solutions over meeting specific requirements. He emphasizes that software development is more akin to a research project than traditional construction or manufacturing. Implementing such a change would necessitate significant shifts, such as incorporating more in-house software development capabilities or bypassing certain aspects of the conventional acquisition process.
Ryseff cites the example of former Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who intervened urgently in the early 2000s to swiftly provide mine-resistant, ambush-protected vehicles to troops encountering improvised explosive devices. This instance demonstrates the military’s ability to rapidly acquire necessary technology when faced with critical circumstances. However, Ryseff acknowledges that current military leaders seem hesitant to adopt such radical responses, suggesting that a major catalyst is needed to drive substantial change.
Pentagon stakeholders are scheduled to convene a meeting with industry representatives in July to discuss proposed solutions for countering unmanned systems and to chart the path forward in terms of development, as outlined in the need statement. This meeting serves as an opportunity to foster collaboration and devise strategies to effectively address the evolving challenges posed by unmanned, autonomous, and AI-driven threats.
Conclusion:
The growing threat posed by inexpensive unmanned systems employing autonomy and artificial intelligence presents both challenges and opportunities for the market. The need for enhanced weapons to counter these threats opens up avenues for innovation and collaboration between the military and industry experts. Companies specializing in novel sensors, autonomous defensive technologies, and passive defeat capabilities are well-positioned to seize market opportunities and contribute to the development of advanced defense systems. Embracing a flexible and innovative approach to technology acquisition and development will be crucial for companies looking to cater to the evolving needs of the military in the face of unmanned, autonomous, and AI-driven threats.
