TL;DR:
- Over 62,000 entertainment jobs in California, spanning film, TV, music, and gaming, will be disrupted by AI within 3 years.
- The study estimates 204,000 entertainment jobs in the US to be affected by AI during the same timeframe.
- AI disruption refers to the consolidation, replacement, or elimination of job tasks.
- CVL Economics surveyed 300 industry leaders to analyze AI’s impact on entertainment.
- The Animation Guild intends to use the study results to inform its bargaining strategies.
- Concerns arise from AI’s potential to cut budgets, exacerbating industry challenges.
- Hollywood experienced tension over AI during recent writers’ and actors’ strikes.
- Writers and actors received more favorable terms in AI-related contracts.
- Job tasks in film, TV, music, and gaming most likely to be impacted by AI are listed.
- Entry-level positions are disproportionately affected by AI.
- The study identifies early AI adoption and job reductions in entertainment companies.
- Uncertainty exists about displaced workers transitioning to new AI-created roles.
Main AI News:
In a recent report published on Monday, it has been projected that over the next three years, approximately 62,000 jobs in California’s entertainment sector, encompassing film, television, music, and gaming, will face disruption due to the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI). This revelation is part of a broader estimate indicating that a staggering 204,000 entertainment jobs across the United States will undergo significant transformation within the same timeframe, all attributed to the growing influence of AI. The disruption of a job is defined by the study as the consolidation, replacement, or elimination of a substantial portion of tasks within that role, driven by AI integration.
The research, commissioned by the Animation Guild, the Concept Art Assn., the Human Artistry Campaign, and the National Cartoonists Society Foundation, was conducted by CVL Economics, a prominent consulting firm. The study involved surveying 300 key figures in the entertainment industry, ranging from C-Suite executives to senior executives and mid-level managers and producers. It aimed to comprehensively analyze the impact and implications of generative AI in the business.
The Animation Guild, in response to concerns expressed by its members regarding the potential threat posed by AI, intends to leverage the findings of this study to inform its negotiation strategies and objectives. Brandon Jarratt, a member of the Animation Guild’s executive board and AI task force, emphasized the significance of understanding the industry’s perspective on AI. He noted, “The tool itself is almost never the issue; the studios are always looking for ways to spend less money. And if they feel like they’re going to be able to cut budgets in order to meet shareholder projections or whatever, then they’re going to try to exploit that in any way they can — and that’s where the fear comes from.”
For an industry already grappling with challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic, excessive spending during streaming battles, overlapping labor disputes, and large-scale corporate mergers, the advent of AI introduces yet another layer of complexity for entertainment workers.
The increasing prevalence of AI technology has caused significant tensions in Hollywood, particularly during recent strikes by writers and actors. These labor negotiations culminated in the WGA and SAG-AFTRA securing contractual limitations and safeguards related to the utilization of modern technology within the studios.
However, the study’s participants displayed relatively less concern regarding the potential impact of AI on writers and actors compared to other professions within the industry. Adam Fowler, founding partner of CVL Economics, suggested that the favorable terms achieved by writers and actors in their contracts influenced the perception of which job roles were most susceptible to AI disruption.
The study identifies several job tasks in the film and TV industry that are particularly vulnerable to AI disruption, including 3-D modeling, character and environment design, voice generation, cloning, and compositing. Other areas at risk include sound design, tools programming, script writing, animation and rigging, concept art and visual development, as well as light and texture generation. Approximately one-third of respondents predicted that AI would displace 3-D modelers, sound editors, re-recording mixers, and broadcast, audio, and video technicians by 2026. An additional quarter of participants expected sound designers, compositors, and graphic designers to face AI-related challenges, with only 15% identifying roles like storyboard artists, illustrators, animators, and certain artists as vulnerable to AI disruption.
Nicole Hendrix, co-founder of the Concept Art Assn., expressed surprise at the high susceptibility of 3-D modeling to AI disruption. She stated, “There’s obviously so much talk in the news about ChatGPT and programs like Stable Diffusion, so we were expecting to see anything with those platforms the most disrupted.”
In the music and sound-recording industry, the study indicates that voice generation, cloning, music generation, recording, and lyrics composition are the tasks most likely to be affected by AI. This is followed by mastering, mixing, and tools programming. Over 50% of survey participants predicted that sound designers would be displaced by AI in the next three years, with over 40% anticipating challenges for music editors, audio technicians, and sound engineers. Roughly a third of respondents foresaw a similar fate for songwriters, composers, and studio engineers.
Within the gaming industry, 3-D modeling and concept art/visual development are identified as the tasks most vulnerable to AI disruption, followed by character and environment design, sound design, tools programming, and voice generation and cloning. About a third of industry leaders surveyed believed that software developers, sound editors, special effects artists, software analysts, and testers were at risk of AI displacement, with 20% expressing concerns for 3-D artists, game designers, UI/UX designers, and video game testers.
The study concludes by highlighting that entry-level positions in the entertainment industry will be disproportionately affected by the increasing prevalence of AI. This aspect is of particular concern to Nicole Hendrix, who pointed out, “When you’re looking at any technology that’s essentially replacing [or consolidating] a junior or entry-level role … it is harming the ecosystem.”
Furthermore, the report reveals that 72% of the surveyed entertainment companies are early adopters of generative AI, with 75% of respondents reporting that AI has already led to the elimination, reduction, or consolidation of jobs within their business divisions. While participants acknowledged that AI has the potential to create new job opportunities, there is uncertainty regarding whether these new roles will be accessible to those displaced by AI technology. Hendrix emphasized the differing skill sets required, stating, “It’s not like the [workers in] roles that are consolidated and lost are going to be automatically eligible for those new roles.”
Brandon Jarratt, a technical director at Disney Animation, emphasized that the Animation Guild aims to play a pivotal role in defining industry standards for the appropriate use of AI tools. He believes that AI can enhance working conditions and allow animation professionals to focus on the more creative aspects of their work by automating repetitive tasks. Jarratt’s ultimate goal is to ensure that AI serves as a tool to empower artists rather than hinder their livelihoods.
Conclusion:
The rapid integration of AI in the entertainment industry, as highlighted by this report, poses significant challenges to job security and industry dynamics. While AI promises efficiency gains, its impact on entry-level roles and the need for industry adaptation are areas of concern. Entertainment companies should strategically balance AI adoption to maximize benefits while mitigating workforce disruptions.
